SAS has cautioned that Europe’s aviation sector risks a fuel shortage unless faster investment in sustainable aviation fuels, particularly e-SAF, is made to match rising demand and impending regulations.
Europe’s aviation industry could be headed for a fresh fuel shock unless investment in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) accelerates far more quickly, SAS has warned in a new report.
In its Aviation Insights analysis, The Need for e-SAF in Scandinavia, the airline argues that the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation rules risk exposing a structural shortage of electro-sustainable aviation fuel, or e-SAF, from 2030 onwards. The concern is not that demand is weak, but that the policy is arriving ahead of the industrial base needed to supply it.
SAS says Scandinavia alone will need about 36,000 tonnes of e-SAF in 2030, rising to more than 160,000 tonnes by 2035 and roughly 330,000 tonnes by 2040. Meeting that demand would require the equivalent of one dedicated plant by 2032, two to three by 2035 and around five by 2040. According to the airline, Europe currently has no e-SAF production facility that has reached a final investment decision.
That gap matters because ReFuelEU Aviation is designed to lift the share of SAF used by airlines gradually over time, as part of the wider EU effort to cut transport emissions under the Fit for 55 package and the European Climate Law. The regulation also includes a separate sub-mandate for synthetic aviation fuels, which is where the current risk is most acute.
The practical concern is that a regulated market with mandatory demand but insufficient supply could push e-SAF prices away from production economics and towards the level of compliance penalties. SAS says that would raise airlines’ operating costs, with likely knock-on effects for fares, route networks and connectivity.
Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, SAS’s senior vice-president for communication, public affairs and sustainability, said the situation shows how vulnerable Europe remains to fuel disruptions. “What we are seeing now is a reminder of how exposed Europe remains to global fuel shocks,” he said. “If we fail to build domestic e-SAF production, we risk creating a second vulnerability, this time inside a regulated system where demand is mandated but supply is not.”
The warning comes as the market framework for SAF is still being assembled. In 2025, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency published a briefing note setting reference prices for SAF and related aviation fuels, intended to help member states determine penalties under ReFuelEU Aviation and support mechanisms under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. EASA said a fuller technical report on compliance and market development is due in September 2026.
For industrial decarbonisation policymakers, the lesson is familiar: demand signals alone do not build plants. e-SAF, made using renewable electricity and captured carbon, is widely seen as one of the few scalable options for cutting aviation emissions without competing for biomass feedstocks or land. But it is still capital-intensive and early-stage, and SAS’s analysis suggests Europe may not have enough time left to wait for market forces to do the job unaided.
The airline outlines two broad paths. One is to temper the ambition of ReFuelEU, which would ease short-term supply pressure but slow the sector’s route to net zero. The other is to preserve the policy trajectory while using targeted support, clearer incentives and faster infrastructure build-out to de-risk production investment.
SAS argues that the second route is the only credible long-term option if Europe wants to avoid a new strategic dependency. Without it, the continent could end up with higher costs, weaker regional connectivity and a climate policy that is technically ambitious but industrially underpowered.
- https://aviationsourcenews.com/sas-warns-lack-of-sustainable-fuel-risks-new-energy-crisis-for-aviation/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.sasgroup.net/newsroom/press-releases/2026/sas-lack-of-sustainable-fuel-could-push-aviation-into-new-energy-crisis/ – SAS warns that Europe faces a potential fuel shock as demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) surges while production lags behind. The airline’s report, ‘The Need for e-SAF in Scandinavia,’ highlights how the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation could create a structural shortage of electro-sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) from 2030 onwards. Without rapid investment in domestic production facilities, airlines may face higher costs, reduced route networks, and increased vulnerability in Europe’s energy security. The report projects a need for 36,000 tons of e-SAF in 2030, increasing to 330,000 tons by 2040, requiring multiple production plants, none of which exist today. SAS emphasizes the urgency of building e-SAF capacity to secure long-term energy stability and maintain industrial competitiveness.
- https://www.sasgroup.net/newsroom/sas-aviation-insights/the-need-for-e-saf-in-scandinavia/ – SAS’s Aviation Insights report, ‘The Need for e-SAF in Scandinavia,’ warns of a potential fuel shock in Europe due to the lag between increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and insufficient production. The report highlights that the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation could lead to a structural shortage of electro-sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) from 2030 onwards. Without rapid investment in domestic production facilities, airlines may face higher costs, reduced route networks, and increased vulnerability in Europe’s energy security. The report projects a need for 36,000 tons of e-SAF in 2030, increasing to 330,000 tons by 2040, requiring multiple production plants, none of which exist today. SAS emphasizes the urgency of building e-SAF capacity to secure long-term energy stability and maintain industrial competitiveness.
- https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/easa-publishes-briefing-note-sustainable-aviation-fuels-saf-prices-2025 – The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) published a briefing note on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) prices in 2025 within the European Union. The note provides key reference prices for SAF and other relevant aviation fuels, intended to serve as a reference for EU Member States in determining penalties under the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation and for the support mechanism for the use of SAF under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme Directive. The briefing note serves as a pre-publication of the aviation fuels reference prices that will be included in the first EASA technical report, due for publication in September 2026, which will provide a comprehensive assessment of the status of compliance of the parties obligated under the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation as well as on the state and development of the SAF market in the EU and its Member States.
- https://observatory.clean-hydrogen.europa.eu/eu-policy/refueleu-aviation – The ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, part of the Fit for 55 Package, aims to meet the European Climate Law targets and reduce emissions by 55% by 2030. Among legislations focused on helping to cut emissions from transport and mobility, ReFuelEU Aviation aims to set provisions to increase the production and use of sustainable aviation fuels. The Regulation sets minimum obligations for all fuel suppliers to gradually increase the share of SAFs (sustainable aviation fuels) in the fuel supplied to operators at EU airports, in accordance with a timetable fixed in the Annex I of the proposal. Within this SAF requirement, a sub-obligation is also set for synthetic aviation fuels.
- https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/scandinavian-airlines-warns-europe-risks-future-fuel-esaf – Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has warned that Europe risks a future fuel shock without a significant drive to produce vast amounts of sustainable fuel. Published on April 30, 2026, SAS’s report states that Europe is heading toward a structural shortage of e-SAF (electro-sustainable aviation fuel) just as the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation comes into force. The European Union’s ReFuelEU places legal obligations on fuel suppliers, airports, and operators to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in order to reduce emissions. The airline suggests that a ‘rapid build-out’ of sustainable fuel production is required, or else the shortfall ‘could push up fares, force route cuts and deepen Europe’s energy vulnerability at a moment when global fuel markets are already under pressure.’
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article is based on a press release from SAS dated April 30, 2026, and has not been previously published elsewhere. ([sasgroup.net](https://www.sasgroup.net/newsroom/press-releases/2026/sas-lack-of-sustainable-fuel-could-push-aviation-into-new-energy-crisis/?utm_source=openai))
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
Direct quotes from Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, Senior Vice President of Communication, Public Affairs & Sustainability at SAS, are consistent across sources and match the press release. ([sasgroup.net](https://www.sasgroup.net/newsroom/press-releases/2026/sas-lack-of-sustainable-fuel-could-push-aviation-into-new-energy-crisis/?utm_source=openai))
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The primary source is SAS’s official press release, a reputable and authoritative source. ([sasgroup.net](https://www.sasgroup.net/newsroom/press-releases/2026/sas-lack-of-sustainable-fuel-could-push-aviation-into-new-energy-crisis/?utm_source=openai))
Plausibility check
Score:
10
Notes:
The claims align with known industry concerns about sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and regulatory mandates. No contradictory information found.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The article is based on a recent SAS press release, with consistent and verifiable quotes. The source is reliable, and the claims are plausible and not contradicted by other information. No paywall or content type issues were identified. The lack of independent verification sources is noted, but the press release serves as the original source.
