The global cooling sector has experienced a 245% growth since 2010, with a growing divide between high-value commercial and mass-market residential segments, driven by regulation, demand, and technological shifts.
BSRIA says the global cooling industry has expanded sharply over the past 15 years, with demand up 245% since 2010, and that the market is increasingly splitting into two very different businesses: a high-value commercial segment and a mass-market residential one.
According to the consultancy’s latest Worldwide Air Conditioning and Heat Pump reports, the commercial side is being lifted by specialist applications, stricter regulation and fast-growing demand from data centres, while the residential market is being squeezed by intense competition and weaker pricing power. BSRIA’s analysis covers 18 major air conditioning markets and 15 heat pump markets.
That divide is showing up in pricing. BSRIA said average selling prices for commercial products such as chillers and air handling units rose in 2025, while prices for ductless split systems in the residential segment fell as suppliers fought for share. The consultancy said the top 10 vendors now account for more than 85% of global sales in that category.
The most dynamic growth area is data centre cooling, where artificial intelligence is driving higher thermal loads and pushing operators towards liquid cooling and more advanced chiller systems. BSRIA said some oil-free centrifugal chillers now account for more than half the market in countries including the US, the UAE, Turkey, Mexico and Indonesia.
The reports also point to a broader shift in how cooling is bought and run. Building owners and investors are placing more weight on energy performance over the asset’s full life, as well as its carbon footprint, which is helping premium low-carbon and high-efficiency systems win favour. BSRIA said this is changing procurement, financing and operating models across the sector.
In emerging markets, inverter-based systems continue to gain ground, with India projected to reach full penetration in inverter split systems by 2029, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia are also moving quickly. That trend is being reinforced by regulation aimed at phasing down inefficient equipment and high-global-warming refrigerants, making low-GWP and natural refrigerants increasingly mainstream in both new installations and retrofits.
BSRIA research manager Aline Breslauer said 2025 brought uncertainty and stronger competition, alongside more mergers and acquisitions, but argued the underlying need for cooling remains robust. She said the next phase of HVAC growth would depend less on technology alone than on companies’ ability to adapt to a more volatile operating environment.
The report’s conclusions come against a wider backdrop of concern about the climate cost of cooling. The UN Environment Programme’s Global Cooling Watch 2025 warned that cooling demand could more than triple by 2050 under business-as-usual conditions, lifting emissions sharply even as efficiency improves and refrigerants are phased down. At the same time, the International Energy Agency has reported a recovery in some heat pump markets, while shipment data in the US and elsewhere suggest 2025 was a difficult year for equipment suppliers as the industry navigated refrigerant changes, high borrowing costs and weaker demand.
- https://www.coolingpost.com/world-news/cooling-demand-increases-245-since-2010/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.acrjournal.uk/news/bsria-reports-sustained-global-cooling-demand/ – BSRIA’s latest analysis reveals a 245% increase in global cooling demand since 2010, driven by changing demographics, technological advancements, regulatory pressures, and the growth of data centres. The market now features two distinct sectors: a high-value commercial sector focused on specialist applications and a high-volume residential sector where intense competition is suppressing prices. The studies, covering 18 key AC markets and 15 heat pump markets, identify key forces shaping the industry, including enhanced technology, tighter regulation, and the rapid proliferation of data centre cooling systems. ([acrjournal.uk](https://www.acrjournal.uk/news/bsria-reports-sustained-global-cooling-demand/?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.unep.org/resources/publication/global-cooling-watch-report-2025 – The Global Cooling Watch 2025 report by the UN Environment Programme highlights that cooling demand could more than triple by 2050 under business-as-usual scenarios, driven by population growth, increased wealth, more extreme heat events, and low-income households gaining access to more polluting and inefficient cooling. This surge would almost double cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions over 2022 levels, pushing emissions to an estimated 7.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2050, despite efforts to improve energy efficiency and phase down climate-warming refrigerants. ([unep.org](https://www.unep.org/resources/publication/global-cooling-watch-report-2025?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/technology-heat-pumps – The International Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review 2026 indicates that global heat pump sales fell by about 2% in 2025. Sales in China and Japan were largely flat, while Europe saw a strong return of demand, with annual sales rising by 11%, marking the first year of growth since 2022. This recovery was largely driven by Germany, where sales in the first half of the year increased by 55%. However, in France, Europe’s largest heat pump market, sales declined moderately. ([iea.org](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/technology-heat-pumps?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.achrnews.com/articles/165859-heat-pump-a-c-shipments-see-20-declines-in-2025 – According to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute, overall shipments of air conditioning units and heat pumps in 2025 were down by 20% compared to the previous year. The December 2025 shipment data report sums up a year impacted by the transition away from R-410A, an uncertain economy affected by tariffs, high interest rates, the termination of federal tax credits, and inventory destocking. Even so, some product shipments moderately outpaced 2024, such as warm-air furnaces and commercial water heaters. ([achrnews.com](https://www.achrnews.com/articles/165859-heat-pump-a-c-shipments-see-20-declines-in-2025?utm_source=openai))
- https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41741423 – A study published in PubMed quantifies global air-conditioning-related greenhouse gas emissions and associated warming impacts under five climate scenarios. In a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP245), cumulative AC-related emissions reach 113.3 GtCO₂eq between 2010 and 2050, increasing global-mean temperature by 0.05 °C. Income inequalities exacerbate disparities in AC use, substantially limiting access to cooling in lower-income regions. While rising incomes reduce this inequality, they increase emissions: income-driven AC growth adds 14-146 GtCO₂eq and a further 0.003-0.05 °C of warming by 2050, even under SSP119. These results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access. ([pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41741423?utm_source=openai))
- https://iifiir.org/en/news/united-states-december-2025-heating-and-cooling-equipment-shipment-data – The International Institute of Refrigeration reports that US shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totalled 408,244 units in December 2025, down 21.4% from the 519,326 units shipped in December 2024. This data reflects the impact of various factors, including the transition away from R-410A refrigerant, economic uncertainties, and inventory adjustments. ([iifiir.org](https://iifiir.org/en/news/united-states-december-2025-heating-and-cooling-equipment-shipment-data?utm_source=openai))
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article was published on 6th May 2026, and the information aligns with recent reports from BSRIA and other reputable sources, indicating high freshness. ([acrjournal.uk](https://www.acrjournal.uk/news/bsria-reports-sustained-global-cooling-demand/?utm_source=openai))
Quotes check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Aline Breslauer, Research Manager at BSRIA. While the quotes are consistent with other reports, they cannot be independently verified without access to the original BSRIA report. ([acrjournal.uk](https://www.acrjournal.uk/news/bsria-reports-sustained-global-cooling-demand/?utm_source=openai))
Source reliability
Score:
9
Notes:
The article originates from The Cooling Post, a specialist publication in the cooling industry. While it is a niche source, it is known for its industry-specific reporting. However, its reach and general reputation are limited compared to major news organisations.
Plausibility check
Score:
9
Notes:
The claims about the 245% increase in global cooling demand since 2010 are plausible and supported by similar findings from BSRIA and other sources. ([acrjournal.uk](https://www.acrjournal.uk/news/bsria-reports-sustained-global-cooling-demand/?utm_source=openai))
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article provides a timely and plausible report on the 245% increase in global cooling demand since 2010, with information consistent with other sources. However, the reliance on a niche source and the inability to independently verify direct quotes from BSRIA reduce the overall confidence in the content’s reliability. Editors should exercise caution and consider seeking additional independent verification before publication.
