Despite promises of a reduction in emissions through the Pathways project, the Alberta oilsands sector is forecasted to experience a significant rise in greenhouse gases due to increased pipeline capacity and production, raising questions over the true impact of carbon capture initiatives.
An environmental economist says the Alberta oilsands are still headed for a material rise in greenhouse gas emissions, even if the long-promised Pathways carbon capture and storage project goes ahead.
Dave Sawyer of the Canadian Climate Institute told the Canadian Press that the sector is likely to see a “fairly significant” emissions increase as new pipeline capacity unlocks more production. The institute has estimated that the additional transportation infrastructure could drive an average of 20 megatonnes of new emissions a year from the oilsands.
That would outstrip the initial emissions cuts promised by Pathways. The project, backed by the five largest oilsands producers, is designed to capture and store six megatonnes of carbon dioxide a year from 2035, with a further 10-megatonne reduction targeted by 2045.
Pathways is being developed as a carbon capture and storage network in north-eastern Alberta, with captured CO₂ compressed, moved by pipeline and injected deep underground into the Basal Cambrian Sandstone formation. Industry material says the system would link multiple oilsands facilities to a storage hub in the Cold Lake area, and the companies behind it say the scheme could create thousands of jobs and generate billions of dollars in construction spending.
The emissions debate is tied to a separate proposed million-barrel-a-day pipeline to southern British Columbia, which Alberta wants developed, built and operated by federal Crown corporation Trans Mountain Corp. The company is already expanding its existing line to the Vancouver area.
Under the Alberta-Ottawa energy accord signed last year, the new pipeline and Pathways are linked: each is conditional on the other moving ahead. Sawyer said the capture project is also likely to require significant public funding, underscoring the scale of the policy and financial commitment still needed before either project becomes reality.
For industrial decarbonisation observers, the numbers highlight a familiar problem: carbon capture can reduce the emissions intensity of upstream production, but it does not automatically offset the absolute emissions growth that can follow from expanded throughput. In this case, the planned storage volumes would cover only part of the added emissions the institute expects from new pipeline capacity, leaving a sizeable gap between mitigation ambition and projected sector growth.
- https://calgary.citynews.ca/2026/07/14/oilsands-emissions-on-track-to-outpace-reductions-from-pathways-project-economist/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/07/14/oilsands-emissions-on-track-to-outpace-reductions-from-pathways-project-economist/ – An environmental economist from the Canadian Climate Institute, Dave Sawyer, has stated that the oilsands sector is on track for a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, even with the Pathways carbon storage project moving forward. The institute estimates an average of 20 megatonnes of new emissions annually from the oilsands sector with new planned pipeline capacity. The Pathways Project, pursued by the five largest oilsands companies, aims to store six megatonnes of CO₂ per year underground starting in 2035, with a goal of an additional 10-megatonne reduction by 2045. The new million-barrel-a-day pipeline to southern B.C. is to be developed, built, and operated by federal Crown corporation Trans Mountain Corp., which is also expanding its existing line to the Vancouver area. Under the Alberta-Ottawa energy accord signed last year, the new pipeline is conditional on Pathways moving ahead and vice versa; Sawyer notes that the carbon capture project is also likely to depend on significant government spending.
- https://oilsandsalliance.ca/pathways-project/carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs/ – The Pathways Project is a proposed CO₂ transportation network and storage hub in northeastern Alberta, aiming to transport and store captured CO₂ from multiple oilsands facilities. The project involves capturing CO₂ emissions from large stationary sources, compressing it into liquid form, and transporting it via pipeline to a storage facility where it is injected deep underground into a porous rock formation. The Basal Cambrian Sandstone formation, located over 1,000 metres underground, is identified as a suitable storage site. The project is being pursued by the five largest oilsands companies and is expected to generate thousands of jobs and billions in spending during construction.
- https://oilsandsalliance.ca/pathways-project/carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-process/ – The Pathways Project outlines a three-step process for carbon capture and storage (CCS): capture, transport, and storage. Capture technologies are fitted to large, stationary emission sources to capture CO₂ from flue gas. The captured CO₂ is then compressed into a liquid form and transported via pipeline to a CO₂ injection well near a geological formation suitable for storage. The CO₂ is injected deep underground into a porous rock formation, well below non-saline groundwater. The project is being advanced by Canadian Natural on behalf of the five project proponents: Canadian Natural, Cenovus, ConocoPhillips Canada, Imperial, and Suncor.
- https://oilsandsalliance.ca/fact-sheets/pathways-project-overview/ – The Pathways Project is a proposed CO₂ transportation network and storage hub in northeastern Alberta, designed to transport and store captured CO₂ from multiple oilsands facilities. The project involves a 650-kilometre pipeline network connecting oilsands facilities to a storage hub in the Cold Lake area, where CO₂ will be injected into the Basal Cambrian Sandstone formation, located 1,000 to 2,000 metres underground. The project is being pursued by the five largest oilsands companies and is expected to generate thousands of jobs and billions in spending during construction.
- https://oilsandsalliance.ca/pathways-project/ – The Pathways Project is a proposed CO₂ transportation network and storage hub in northeastern Alberta, aiming to transport and store captured CO₂ from multiple oilsands facilities. The project involves capturing CO₂ emissions from large stationary sources, compressing it into liquid form, and transporting it via pipeline to a storage facility where it is injected deep underground into a porous rock formation. The Basal Cambrian Sandstone formation, located over 1,000 metres underground, is identified as a suitable storage site. The project is being pursued by the five largest oilsands companies and is expected to generate thousands of jobs and billions in spending during construction.
- https://rdnewsnow.com/2026/07/14/oilsands-emissions-on-track-to-outpace-reductions-from-pathways-project-economist/ – An environmental economist from the Canadian Climate Institute, Dave Sawyer, has stated that the oilsands sector is on track for a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, even with the Pathways carbon storage project moving forward. The institute estimates an average of 20 megatonnes of new emissions annually from the oilsands sector with new planned pipeline capacity. The Pathways Project, pursued by the five largest oilsands companies, aims to store six megatonnes of CO₂ per year underground starting in 2035, with a goal of an additional 10-megatonne reduction by 2045. The new million-barrel-a-day pipeline to southern B.C. is to be developed, built, and operated by federal Crown corporation Trans Mountain Corp., which is also expanding its existing line to the Vancouver area. Under the Alberta-Ottawa energy accord signed last year, the new pipeline is conditional on Pathways moving ahead and vice versa; Sawyer notes that the carbon capture project is also likely to depend on significant government spending.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on July 14, 2026, and reports on statements made by Dave Sawyer of the Canadian Climate Institute regarding the Pathways carbon capture project. The Pathways Project has been in development for several years, with recent agreements signed on July 2, 2026, between the Alberta government, Ottawa, and five major oilsands producers. ([canada.ca](https://www.canada.ca/en/one-canadian-economy/news/2026/07/advancing-emissions-reductions-and-expanded-export-capacity-the-trilateral-memorandum-of-understanding-between-canada-alberta-and-the-oil-sands-all.html?utm_source=openai)) The article provides new insights into the project’s potential impact on emissions, indicating a timely and original contribution to the ongoing discussion.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Dave Sawyer of the Canadian Climate Institute, stating that the Pathways project would offset just a portion of the emissions from a new West Coast pipeline and that the institute estimates an average of 20 megatonnes of new emissions annually from the oilsands sector with new planned pipeline capacity. These quotes are consistent with statements made by Sawyer in other recent reports. ([ipolitics.ca](https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/07/14/oilsands-emissions-on-track-to-outpace-reductions-from-pathways-project-economist/?utm_source=openai)) However, the exact wording of the quotes in the article cannot be independently verified, as the original source is not provided. This raises concerns about the accuracy and authenticity of the quotes.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The article is published by CityNews Calgary, a local news outlet. While it is a reputable source within its region, it may not have the same level of editorial oversight or fact-checking resources as larger national or international news organizations. Additionally, the article relies on information from the Canadian Press, which is a reputable news agency. However, the lack of direct access to the original Canadian Press article raises concerns about the source’s reliability.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article discusses the potential emissions impact of the Pathways carbon capture project, a topic that has been covered in other recent reports. ([ipolitics.ca](https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/07/14/oilsands-emissions-on-track-to-outpace-reductions-from-pathways-project-economist/?utm_source=openai)) The claims made in the article are plausible and align with existing discussions on the subject. However, the lack of direct access to the original Canadian Press article and the inability to independently verify the quotes raise concerns about the accuracy and credibility of the information presented.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article provides timely and original reporting on the Pathways carbon capture project and its potential impact on emissions. However, the inability to independently verify the quotes and the lack of direct access to the original Canadian Press article raise concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the information presented. Given these issues, the content does not meet the necessary standards for publication under our editorial indemnity.
